The Good and Bad News about Coronavirus

It’s dusk Thursday evening. I pull into the Dartmouth BJ’s parking lot and what do I see, a mass of humanity and metal. People physically drained from general angst pushing overstuffed shopping carts. No matter how you feel, medically and politically about it, the impact from the coronavirus rhetoric is profoundly changing our lives. BJ’s is normally barren at this hour, except during the holidays and for storm preparations. People hear a buzz phrase, like stock up, and word spreads like a chain letter. Next thing you know–folks hunker into “panic buy” mode.

Inside the wholesale club long, snaking lines as shoppers wait in absolute astonishment to check out. People are preparing for the inevitable. Ask anyone what inevitable is and nobody knows. They are stocking up on toilet paper, canned goods, bottled water, sanitizing cloths and gels where you can find it.

[Walmart, BJ’s and Stop and Shop were all out of butt paper]. Numerous stores now are rationing essential items.

If what I’m witnessing is any indicator, the impact from the coronavirus will be far more financial than fatal. That’s the good and bad news. Let’s begin in my back yard.

UMass-Dartmouth is extending their normal one week spring break into the beginning of April. Dorms only open this week so students can gather belongings for who knows how long. When classes resume they will be held on-line. UMass workers have orders to clean and basically sterilize the campus. If corona is all that, what happens when students return in April? Will workers sanitize each dorm, study and lecture hall everyday? How much will that cost the student, parent and taxpayers?

Who knows where students and professors are hanging away from the hallowed halls. One sophomore tells me she lives on-campus and doesn’t know if UMass will reimburse her if the dorms remain closed for an extended period. Those unused meal tickets cost a lot of mullah. By the way–this sophomore works in the sometimes crowded Dartmouth Mall. Her disgust echoing in her voice as she wonders how her hands-on arts class will be taught on-line.

Let’s compound the issue by adding all the other colleges and universities suddenly resorting to on-line education because of the hype, real or imagined, over coronavirus. On-campus students don’t take out hefty student loans for on-line learning. The loans still have to be paid with interest. My nose sniffles lawsuit. Massachusetts is in a state of emergency. No way of guessing how judges will be compelled to rule under such circumstances. If nothing else, this is an alarm bell warning for parents of high school juniors and seniors. You never know if/when the educational institution you’re dropping good dollars on will, voluntarily or involuntarily, close. 

 Spring break. As a college sophomore and senior, yours truly over-indulged while in sunny Florida to shake-off North Adams’ winter chill. Many students have cancelled the 2020 foray because of covid-19. The sunshine state reaps a huge financial bonanza from students visiting, renting rooms and campsites, touring Disney, Epcot, the beaches, enjoying minor league baseball, eating out, guzzling booze, grinding, etc. Millions of dollars are earned, people employed and tax revenue gained from Florida’s version of March Madness. At well north of $2,000,000,000, travel and tourism is the #1 industry in the united States and worth more than a trillion globally.

The cancellation of the NCAA Men’s and Women’s Hoop Tournament. CNN reports the NCAA will lose approximately $900 M just in advertising revenue because the tourneys are cancelled. That’s a lot of scholarships, food, air flights and payroll lost. Scrapping these tournaments is another bullet into that $1,000,000,000,000 + tourism industry. Read: income, jobs and tax revenue lost!

Postponed indefinitely, the NBA, NHL and MLS. Major League baseball is out a minimum of two weeks. Lots of empty hotel rooms, restaurants, you get the picture. This is all part of the nation’s #1 industry.

How many conferences are being cancelled or regulated now to a video conference? Zoom.

I practice and preach working from home and small biz ownership. As businesses small and large, including government, look for viable solutions to allow employees to work from home, expect fewer people commuting to work. So what? Lost gasoline tax revenues because fewer vehicles will be filling up. Gas station owners earn fewer $$s, that leads to pink slips. Fewer miles driven equates to fewer repairs which means the repair shops won’t have the green to pay workers they no longer need. The dreaded parking garage owners will feel the pinch. Do you think city governments will furlough those lovable meter Nazis?

Take public transportation to work? Less passengers means fewer monthly passes purchased. You don’t need as many buses or trains, which means those decently paid, unionized employees are home listening to country music and kicking the dog.

The shriveling number of commuters will be a dagger into the heart of companies that heavily rely on the regularly employed to fuel their business. Variety stores, card shops, florists, clothiers, restaurants, pubs, print shops, have one thing in common. The everyday blue collar gal and guy. Many will lose their jobs. Many of these people live paycheck to paycheck. What does the landlord do when these normally on time payers can’t afford the rent? What will the utility companies do when the laid off worker cannot pay the gas and electric bills? We know the same governments that created this mess will levy penalties and fines if our taxes and fees aren’t paid in a timely manner. The potential ripple effect is far greater, far larger than the number of people in China stricken with covid-19.

From the ranks of those forced out of the office. Expect thousands never to return. They’re loving the option, comfort and tax write-offs associated with working from home. Going traditional 9-5 is in life’s rear view mirror. Similar to when the whaling, steel and other 19th century industries shuttered, jobs on the periphery–shall also cease to exist. Don’t believe me? Look at your favorite downtown or city center for F.W. Woolworth. 

All this because of some virus apparently ignited in Wuhan, China. A virus that medical experts claim and the numbers starkly reveal is less deadly than influenza. In my lifetime, there has never been a state of emergency over a major flu outbreak. Lots of deaths? Yes. Children and adults out sick? Yep. A colossal shutdown? Nada. Zilch! 

If Massachusetts and our nation continues to gravitate in its current rhetoric driven direction, my best guess is we’ll have more folks bankrupt/broke from the novel coronavirus than dead. That’s the good and bad news!

Brian’s Beat, Live, Saturdays 7:00-9:00 am [EDT] on 1420 WBSM-New Bedford; WBSM.com; WBSM app; Talk line: (877) 996-1420

 

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